老年人居住安排选择的逻辑分析

Logic of Older Adults'Aged Care Choice of Location

通过连续性理论解释了老年人居住安排选择的逻辑,即病理性老化人群虽然囿于个体禀赋限制缺乏外在连续性,但是居住安排选择仍然遵循内在连续性规律。这种规律在当前老年群体集中体现为家庭主义观念的延续,具体表现为个体禀赋和居住安排选择间的机制遵循代际支持减轻子女负担的原则。实证上使用2018年中国老年社会追踪调查数据,运用mlogit模型分析身体健康状况、照料代际支持对居住安排选择的影响机制。研究发现:第一,结论支持老年人依据个体禀赋进行理性选择的观点。老年人自理能力对选择子女家和养老机构产生显著负向影响,在使用工具变量和倾向得分匹配(PSM)减少内生性以后,结论依然稳健。并且这种影响呈现显著异质性,自理能力较差的农村老年人更倾向于子女家和养老机构。第二,结论初步验证老年人居住安排选择遵循通过代际支持减轻子女负担的原则。子女代际支持过强是自理能力较差的老年人选择养老机构的重要因素,而老人代际支持过强是自理能力较好的老年人选择子女家的重要因素。综合上述结论,认为政府应将家庭作为养老政策单元,弘扬代际支持为核心的家庭主义观,这有利于社会养老非刚性需求群体重新回归家庭,有效缓解社会养老负担。

This study solves the logic of older adults'aged care choice of location by developing continuity theory.Although pathological aging adults who are constrained by endowments interrupte their early life styles,they will continue internal continuity,which means"children should be the last ones to suffer".Utilizing data from 2018 China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey,this paper uses mlogit to evaluate the impact of physical health,caring for intergenerational reciprocity,and aged care choice of location.First,the result shows that the elderly choosing the way of aged care according to their resources endowment is the rational choice.We find that physical health will inhibited choice of living with children or living in institution.And this conclusion remains robust after using IV and PSM to deal with the endogeneity.The effect of physical health on aged care choice is characterized by imbalance.Physical health based on older people living in rural area can more significantly influence on the choice.Second,the result confirms that the aged care choice follows the principle of relieving their children's burden based on intergenerational reciprocity.Strong children's intergenerational support enhances the willingness of living in institutions.Strong elderly's intergenerational support is a significant reason for promoting the elderly with better physical health to live with children.Local governments should regard the family as the basic unit of pension policy and promote intergenerational reciprocity as the core of ethics,which is the key measure for effectively making older people return to their family and easing aging problem.