基于案例推理的重大公共卫生事件协同决策方法

A Collaborative Decision-Making Method for Grave Public Health Emergencies Based on Case-Based Reasoning

【目的/意义】本世纪以来,非典、新冠肺炎疫情等重大公共卫生事件频发,危及人民生命财产安全。重大公共卫生事件相关信息复杂多样,其应对是一个多阶段多主体协同的决策过程。重大公共卫生事件协同决策方法是国家公共卫生治理和疫情防控体系建设的重要内容。【方法/过程】在总体国家安全观下,本文将决策实验室分析法(DEMATEL)和后悔理论融入案例推理过程,提出一种基于案例推理的重大公共卫生事件协同决策方法,为重大公共卫生事件应急情报分析与智能决策平台建设提供方法和技术手段支撑。【结果/结论】案例研究结果证明,所提方法在应急决策中具有较好的效果,反映了决策过程中决策者的心理行为给决策结果带来的影响,并提高了突发公共卫生事件应急管理决策的科学性。【创新/局限】未来随着历史案例的增加,在重大公共卫生事件应急决策过程中可用案例信息更加丰富,综合考虑多个历史案例信息进行决策可能会获得更好的效果。

【Purpose/significance】Since this century,major public health events(MPHEs)such as SARS and COVID-19 have occurred frequently,endangering people's lives and property.The information related to MPHEs is complex and diverse,and the response to MPHE is a multi-stage and multi-body collaborative decision-making process,which is an important element in the construction of the national public health governance and epidemic prevention and control system.【Method/process】Under the overall national security concept,this paper integrates the Decision Making Laboratory Analysis Method(DEMATEL)and regret theory into the case reasoning process and proposes a collaborative decision-making method for MPHEs based on case reasoning,which provides methodological and technical means to support the construction of an emergency intelligence analysis and intelligent decision-making platform for MPHEs.【Result/conclusion】The results of the case study prove that the proposed method is effective in emergency decision-making,reflecting the influence of the psychological behavior of decision-makers,and improving the scientificity of emergency management decisions for MPHEs.【Innovation/limitation】In the future,as the number of historical cases increases,the available case information in the emergency decision-making process of major public health events becomes more abundant,and better results may be obtained by considering multiple historical case information for decision-making.