千里“碳缘”一线牵:中国区域碳排放空间关联网络的结构特征与形成机制

Structural characteristics and formation mechanism of carbon emission spatial association networks within China

本文采用社会网络分析方法,在对1998–2016年中国区域碳排放空间关联网络结构特征进行考察的基础上,建立指数随机图模型首次对中国碳排放空间关联网络的形成机制进行了识别和解释.结果表明:中国区域碳排放空间关联网络可分为“各司其责”的四大板块并呈现出明显的区域化“俱乐部”空间分布特征;各板块在样本时期内均发生了不同程度的重组,其中净溢出板块的组成省份有所减少,主受益和净受益板块的组成省份有所增加,而经纪人板块的组成省份虽然有所变化但总数保持不变;区域间的“碳排放避难所”效应有所弱化,各区域倾向于以“互惠”或“组团”的方式参与碳排放空间关联“活动”,碳排放的空间关联存在区域间各自为政的“诸侯经济”与梯度断层现象;较高的对外开放度、清洁低碳的能源结构与能源效率的提升有利于推动区域间产生更多的碳排放接收关系;碳排放的空间关联格局随能源结构的升级而呈现出“由西向东”和“由北向南”的梯度关联趋向;区域间经济发展方式在对外开放、经济集聚、产业结构、能源效率上的互补性以及紧密的区域贸易联系,促使碳排放空间关联网络随着区域间分工与协作的加强而呈现出千里“碳缘”一线牵的特点.因此,加快推进实施区域一体化和碳交易市场等协作减排政策,将有效促进区域间的协同低碳转型发展格局得以实现.

Using the social network analysis method,for the first time,this paper builds an exponential random graph model to identify and interpret the formation mechanism of China’s carbon emission spatial association networks based on the investigation of the structural characteristics of the networks from 1998 to 2016.The results show that China’s carbon emission spatial association networks can be divided into four major plates with different responsibilities and present an evident regional club distribution characteristic.Each plate experienced a recombination process to varying degrees during our sample period.In detail,provinces belonging to the net spillover plate decreased,while provinces belonging to the main benefit and net benefit plates all increased.Meanwhile,although provinces belonging to the broker plate changed,its total number remains unchanged.Moreover,the“carbon emission refuge”effect between regions weakened.Regions tend to participate in the spatial association“activities”of carbon emissions in the forms of“reciprocity”or“clusters,”and the spatial association of carbon emissions has the phenomena of“feudal economy”and gradient fault.A high degree of openness,a clean and low-carbon energy structure,and improved energy efficiency are conducive to promoting more carbon emission reception relationships between regions.As energy structure upgrades,the spatial association pattern of carbon emissions has gradient flow trends from west to east and from north to south.The complementarity of inter-regional economic development modes in openness,economic agglomeration,industrial structure,and energy efficiency leads to forming the carbon emission spatial association networks.Thus,the strengthening of regional division and cooperation and close regional trade ties causes the network to present the feature of a“carbon”fate match across a thousand miles drawn by a thread.Therefore,accelerating the implementation of cooperation emission reduction policies,such as regional integration and carbon trading market,will effectively promote the realization of regional collaborative low-carbon transformation development.