劳动供给转变、有为政府作用与人工智能时代开启

Labor Supply Transformation,Well-functioning Government and the Era of Artificial Intelligence

人工智能技术革命是机器由在工业经济时代主要替代人的体力劳动转变为在数字经济时代主要替代人的脑力劳动的更深层次和更广范围的工业革命,本文研究了机器应用和劳动供给转变对生产结构转型和分配结构演化的影响。本文发现,只有在特定的经济结构中,机器应用、劳动供给转变或通用技术创新才能促进机器更多地替代人的脑力劳动,使得脑力密集型生产方式更多地替代体力密集型生产方式,进而开启人工智能时代。如果机器和人的替代弹性还不高,机器的脑力工作偏向型技术还不成熟,那么须发挥有为政府作用,通过加强数字基础设施建设实现结构转型升级的路径转换。为了稳定劳动收入份额,政府还应逐步加强机器收入税调节,形成工业革命红利由人民共享的新发展模式与效率和公平更加统一的新经济形态。

The technological revolution of artificial intelligence(Al)is a profound industrial revolution under which machines replace human's brain labor in the digital economy,other than replacing human's brawn labor in the industry economy.The paper studies the effects of machine utilization and labor supply on structural transformation and income distribution.We find that only with specific economic structures,the broad use of machines,the shrinking labor supply or the new general-purpose technology can initiate the AI era with widespread substitution between machines and human's brain labor,or between brain-intensive and brawn-intensive production.If the elasticity between machines and human's labor is low,or the brain-labor-biased technology of machines is low,then the well-functioning government should ramp up investment in digital infrastructure to switch the process of structural transformation.To stabilize the labor share,the government should also strengthen the income tax reform for machines,which may help form the new development mode with benefits of industrial revolution shared by people and the new economy with more harmonious relationship between efficiency and equality.