基于概率积分法开采沉陷静态预计的研究

Research on Static Prediction of Mining Subsidence Based on Probability Integration Method

煤炭资源在我国的能源生产中占据主导地位,研究矿区的地下开采以及其地表移动规律,对安全生产和及时预估或者减少因煤矿开采造成的地质灾害都具有重要的意义。因此,实现开采沉陷精确预计是实施矿区环境地质灾害评估与防治的基本方法。采用概率积分法对工作面开采变形的实时监测数据进行预测,并通过工程实例验证其在开采沉陷静态预计中的可行性。

Coal resources occupy a dominant position in China's energy production.It is of great significance to study the underground mining and the law of surface movement in the mining area for safe production and timely prediction and reduction of geological disasters caused by coal mining.Therefore,accurate prediction of mining subsidence is the basic method for evaluating and preventing environmental geological hazards in mining areas.This article uses probability integration method to predict realtime monitoring data of mining deformation in working faces,and verifies its feasibility in static prediction of mining subsidence through engineering cases.