基于灰色理论的河南省高技术产业关键人才需求预测及精准化管理策略

The Forecast of Talent Demands and Precise Management Strategy of Henan’s High-Technology Industries Based on Gray Theory

以2014—2020年河南省高技术产业从业人员数据作为原始序列,建立高技术产业人才需求量的时间序列GM(1,1)模型,预测2021—2025年河南省高技术产业人才需求总量。结果显示:未来5年,河南省六大高技术产业人才的需求量呈现稳步下降的趋势,人才需求数量分别为128.0011万人、118.5643万人、109.8232万人、101.7266万人和94.2268万人。由于技术不断进步,机器替代人力,劳动生产率提高,劳动需求量减少。新兴的技术与发明,虽然创造了新的就业机会,但也导致更多的失业。相关职能部门需要随时掌握人才需求的变动情况,做好精准化管理。

Based on the data of high-technology workers from 2014 to 2020 in Henan Province,the time series GM(1,1)model of the demand for high-technology talents is established to predict the total demand for high tech talents from 2021 to 2025.The results show that in the next five years,the demand for talents in the high tech shows a steady downward trend,the demand for talents is 1280,011,1185,643,1098,232,1017,266 and 942,268,respectively.This may be due to technological advances,the replacement of manpower by machines,increased Labour productivity and reduced demand for labour.New Technologies and inventions,while creating new jobs,also lead to more unemployment.Relevant functional departments need to keep abreast of changes in talent demand,do a good job of accurate management.