统筹设备使用寿命、设计寿命、资产折旧年限多因素的电网资产技改资金规模预测方法研究

Prediction Method of Capital Scale for Technical Reform of Power Grid Assets by Integrating Multiple Factors of Equipment Life,Design Life and Asset Depreciation Life

电网大规模投资所导致的集中改造给电网企业健康发展带来较大的风险,科学预测技改资金规模,合理安排电网技改项目,对于消除缓解电网集中改造资金缺口、保障电网安全可靠运行意义重大。统筹设备使用寿命、设计寿命、折旧年限,提出一种基于资产墙的多因素技改规模预测模型方法,提高预测结果的合理性和科学性。通过对公司实际业务对比验证,本模型方法推演结果与实际业务契合,可为电网企业电网资产技改规模预测提供参考。

The centralized transformation caused by large-scale investment in power grids brings greater risk to the healthy development of power grid enterprises.Scientific prediction of the scale of funds for technical transformation and reasonable arrangement of power grid technical transformation projects are of great significance in eliminating the shortage of funds for relieving centralized transformation of power grids and ensuring safe and reliable operation of power grids.The project is based on a multi-factor prediction model based on the asset wall to improve the reasonableness and scientificity of the prediction results.By comparing and verifying the actual business of the company,the extrapolation results of this model method fit with the actual business,and can provide reference for the prediction of the scale of grid assets technical reform of grid enterprises.