基于LPG储罐事故演化系统的个人风险分析

Multi-scenario accident individual risk analysis based on LPG tank accident evolution system

为全面有效地评估LPG储罐事故演化对周边区域造成的多情景伤害,对LPG储罐系统进行结构构成分析,利用事故演化中能量、状态、质量因素之间的关系,结合系统动力学构建事故演化系统模型。在LPG储罐事故演化系统的基础上,建立多情景事故个人风险计算方法,考虑了系统中各因素变化对事故的影响,以计算更符合实际事故后果的个人风险值。最后,应用已建立的系统模型与个人风险计算方法对淮南某化工企业球罐区LPG储罐进行事故演化系统仿真与个人风险预测,结果表明:用系统动力学软件Vensim对事故演化进行仿真能准确计算事故演化过程与结果;考虑事故演化后的多情景事故个人风险相较于单情景个人风险更能反映真实情况。

In order to comprehensively and effectively evaluate the multi-scenario damage to the surrounding area caused by the accident evolution of LPG storage tank,the structural composition of LPG storage tank system was analyzed,and the accident evolution system model was constructed by using the mutual influence relationship among energy,state and quality factors in accident evolution and system dynamics.Based on the LPG tank accident evolution system,a multi-scenario accident personal risk calculation method was established,which considers the influence of various factors in the system on the accident to calculate the personal risk value that is more in line with the actual accident consequences.Finally,the accident evolution system simulation and personal risk prediction of LPG storage tank in spherical tank area of a chemical enterprise in Huainan were carried out by using the established system model and personal risk calculation method.The results show that using the system dynamics software Vensim to simulate the accident evolution can accurately calculate the accident evolution process and results,and the multi-scenario personal risk considering the evolution of accidents can reflect the risks more realistically than the single-scenario personal risk.