财政风险金融化:理论内涵与产生机理

Financialization of Fiscal Risk:Theoretical Connotation and Mechanism

财政风险金融化是财政风险对金融系统产生的负外部性,表现为财政风险向金融风险的转化。本文基于风险传染视角,通过在四部门模型中引入政府对金融部门隐性担保和政府信誉对家庭储蓄的影响,刻画了财政风险向金融风险的转化过程和作用机制,并进行了实证检验。研究发现,财政风险对金融系统的影响呈现非线性关系,随着财政风险增加,金融部门信贷供给先增后降,违约风险先降后增,存在一个拐点;机制检验表明,财政风险不仅会直接产生对金融系统的风险溢出,也会导致企业投资水平和家庭储蓄水平的非线性变动,间接产生对金融系统的风险溢出,从而形成财政风险的金融化。本文为厘清财政与金融的关系、防范化解系统性金融风险提供了理论借鉴。

The financialization of fiscal risk is the negative externality of fiscal risk to financial system,which is manifested in the transformation from fiscal risk to financial risk.From the perspective of risk contagion and by introducing the expectation of government implicit guarantee on financial sector and the impact of government reputation on household savings in a four sector model,this paper describes the transformation process and mechanism of fiscal risk into financial risk,and makes an empirical test.It is found that the impact of fiscal risk on the financial system presents a non-linear relationship.With the increase of fiscal risk,the credit supply of financial sector increases first and then decreases,while the default risk decreases first and then increases,and there is an inflection point.The mechanism test shows that fiscal risk not only directly leads to risk spillovers to the financial system,but also leads to nonlinear changes in enterprise investment levels and household savings levels,indirectly leading to risk spillovers to the financial system,thus forming the financialization of fiscal risks.This paper provides a theoretical reference for clarifying the relationship between fiscal and finance and the systemic financial risk prevention.