“叠加态”货币循环的作用机理与效应冲击

The Mechanism and Impact of “Superposition” Monetary Cycle

现实中存在着相当规模的货币受套利动机驱使在金融市场中空转,以货币形式存在的财富形态配置于实体与虚拟之间,这意味着对传统货币经济学框架的认知,特别是对货币循环运行机制需要重新梳理和探讨。真实的货币循环不是单纯基于实体构建的货币-商品循环机制,而是货币-商品交易与货币-货币交易的叠加机制。为考察这一叠加机制的作用机理,围绕纯货币-商品交易到叠加货币-货币交易的运行机制,设定套利激励下各主体的最优选择,基于家庭、企业、商业银行和中央银行构建纯货币-商品交易的DSGE模型,模拟M2冲击对产出、通货膨胀以及金融业实际利润的影响;在此基础上,构建涵盖叠加货币-货币交易机制、异质性企业、非银行金融机构的DSGE模型,模拟M2冲击、抵质押率冲击、社会融资需求冲击与技术冲击对产出、通货膨胀、资产价格、金融业实际利润以及名义利率的影响。结果表明:相对纯货币-商品交易而言,货币-货币交易的叠加显著降低了M2对产出的刺激,并引发“脱实向虚”;抵质押机制的引入加剧了“脱实向虚”;刺激社会融资需求与技术改进则可以缓解“脱实向虚”。由此,未来我国应将稳健的货币政策与刺激社会融资需求、技术改进的政策搭配使用,以更好缓解“脱实向虚”,实现我国经济高质量发展。

In reality,there is a considerable scale of money driven by arbitrage motivation in the financial market,and wealth in the form of money is allocated between the entity and the virtual,which means that the cognition of the traditional monetary economics framework,especially the operation mechanism of the monetary cycle,needs to be re-combed and discussed.The real currency cycle is not simply a currency-commodity cycle mechanism based on entity construction,but a superposition mechanism of currency-commodity transaction and currency-currency transaction.In order to examine the mechanism of this superposition mechanism,this study focuses on the operation mechanism of pure money-commodity trading to superimposed money-money trading,sets the optimal choice of each subject under arbitrage incentives,and builds a DSGE model of pure money-commodity trading based on households,enterprises,commercial banks and central banks to simulate the impact of M2 shocks on output,inflation and actual profits of the financial industry.On this basis,a DSGE model covering superimposed currency-money trading mechanism,heterogeneous enterprises and non-bank financial institutions is constructed to simulate the impact of M2 shock,pledge rate shock,social financing demand shock and technology shock on output,inflation,asset price,real profit of financial industry and nominal interest rate.The results show that compared with pure money-commodity trading,the superposition of money-money trading significantly reduces the stimulus of M2 on output,and triggers the shift from real to virtual.The introduction of the pledge mechanism has exacerbated the shift from reality to virtuality.And stimulating social financing needs and technological improvement can alleviate the transition from real to virtual.Therefore,in the future,China should use prudent monetary policy in conjunction with policies that activate social financing needs and technological improvement to better alleviate the transition from reality to virtuality and achieve high-quality economic development in China.