中国对美国水产品贸易规模、互补性及影响因素研究

Study on the Scale, Complementarity and Influencing Factors of China’s Aquatic Products Trade with the United States

水产品一直居于中国出口优势农产品首位,而中国输美水产品贸易是中国水产品贸易的重要组成部分。中美贸易博弈加剧,波及渔业领域,然而,中美第一阶段经贸协定又取得一定成果,在此背景下,分析两国水产品贸易趋势,研究中国输美水产品影响因素及贸易潜力具有重要意义。在对中美两国水产品贸易规模和贸易关系分析基础上,运用随机前沿引力模型测算中国输美水产品贸易效率和潜力,并采用一步法分析水产品贸易影响因素。结果表明:新冠肺炎疫情造成物流成本上升和国际供应链衔接不畅,导致中美水产品贸易规模、互补性下降;中国输美水产品贸易既受经济规模、市场规模和地理位置等自然决定因素影响,也受市场监管质量、与全球航运网络连通程度、贸易和运输相关基础设施、贸易及商业自由度等主观决定因素影响;随着中美第一阶段贸易协议执行、疫情缓解,贸易规模、效率及潜力均有所提高。在此种境遇中,应通过政策和战略对话加强中美水产品贸易合作;提升海洋科技支撑能力,克服远距离和班轮运输对中国水产品出口贸易的消极影响,加快现代信息技术在航运网络和港口建设方面的应用,利用数字中国优势提高贸易效率;调整水产品养殖结构,通过增量、提质、降成本方式提高贸易潜力。

Aquatic product ranks first in China’s export advantage of agricultural products,and Sino-US aquatic product trade is an important component of China’s aquatic product trade.Sino-US strategic game has intensified,affecting the fishing industry.However,the first phase of the Sino-US economic and trade agreement has achieved certain results.In this context,analyzing the trade trends of aquatic products between the two countries and studying the influencing factors and trade potential of China’s aquatic products exported to the United States is of great significance.Based on the analysis of the trade scale and trade relationship of aquatic products between China and the United States,the stochastic frontier Gravity model is used to measure the trade efficiency and potential of China’s aquatic products exported to the United States,and the one-step method is used to analyze the influencing factors of aquatic products trade.The results show that the COVID-19 has caused the rise of logistics costs and the poor connection of the international supply chain,leading to the decline of the scale and complementarity of Sino-US aquatic products trade.The trade of China’s aquatic products exported to the United States is influenced by natural determining factors such as economic scale,market size,and geographical location,as well as subjective determining factors such as market regulatory quality,connectivity with global shipping networks,trade and transportation related infrastructure,and trade and commercial freedom.And in the context of the implementation of the first phase of the Sino-US economic and trade agreement and the alleviation of the epidemic,the scale,efficiency,and potential of trade have all improved.Therefore,we should strengthen cooperation in Sino-US aquatic product trade through policy and strategic dialogue,and overcome the negative impact of distance and liner transportation on China’s export trade by enhancing marine technology support capabilities.We should accelerate the application of modern information technology in shipping networks and port construction,utilize the advantages of digital China to improve trade efficiency,adjust the structure of aquatic product aquaculture,and increase trade potential through increment,quality improvement,and cost reduction.