基于消费和收益视角的中国温室气体排放核算及驱动因素比较研究

A Comparative Study on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Accounting and Driving Factors in China from the Perspective of Consumption and Income Perspectives

温室气体(GHG)排放核算是实施环境治理和减排任务的重要基础。采用IO-SDA模型测算了基于消费和收益的中国33个部门GHG排放量及其驱动因素,设置不同情景预测未来GHG排放变化。结果表明:(1)根据不同视角下的GHG排放量可识别生产、需求或供给驱动的排放部门,采取差异性减排措施降低排放。(2)消费侧GHG排放主要由建筑部门的固定资本形成、农林渔部门的家庭消费以及电光设备部门的出口所贡献,而收益侧GHG排放主要由电力、燃气和水供应部门的价值创造贡献。(3)不论哪种核算原则,财富上升是GHG排放增加的主要因素,排放强度下降是其重要抑制因素;限制关键部门财富上升,加速其排放强度下降,将有效减缓未来GHG上升。

Greenhouse gas emission accounting(GHG accounting)is an important foundation for implementing environmental governance and emission reduction tasks.The consumption-based and income-based GHG emissions are measured and their driven factors are analyzed by using IO-SDA model.The results are shown as follows.First,according to GHG emissions from different perspectives,sectors driven by production,demand or supply can be identified,thus,targeted emission reduction measures can be taken.Second,the consumption-based GHG emissions are mainly caused by the fixed capital in construction,the household consumption in agriculture and hunting,and the export in electronic and optical equipment;however,added value in electricity,gas and water supply is the major contributor to the income-based GHG emissions.Third,regardless of the accounting principles,GHG emissions increment is mainly due to the rising of wealth,the decreasing of emission intensity is the main inhibiting factor.Limiting wealth rise of key emission sectors and accelerating the decline of their emission intensity can effectively slow down the increase of GHG in the future.