粮食主产区农田生态系统碳足迹的时空演化与脱钩效应

Spatial-Temporal Pattern Evolution and Decoupling Effect of Farmland Ecosystem Carbon Footprint in Major Grain-Producing Areas

基于2010—2020年粮食主产区13个省份的面板数据,构建农田生态系统碳足迹模型、Tapio脱钩模型,对粮食主产区农田生态系统碳足迹的时空变化及其与粮食产量之间的脱钩效应进行分析。结果表明:(1)粮食主产区农田生态系统碳排放总量呈下降趋势,空间上呈现“南高北低”态势。其中,农资投入引起的碳排放总量最高。(2)农田生态系统碳吸收总量呈上升趋势,空间上呈“中部高、南北低”态势。其中,水稻等粮食作物的碳吸收总量最高。(3)农田生态系统碳足迹呈下降趋势,空间上呈现“中部低、南北高”态势。更重要的是,碳足迹与粮食产量之间呈“强脱钩—弱脱钩—强脱钩”交替演变态势,并出现空间层面的不均等性。由此,有针对性地以粮食安全为目标,提出低碳农业转型的策略建议。

Based on the panel data of 13 provincial administrative regions in major grain-producing areas from 2010 to 2020,the farmland ecosystem carbon footprint model and Tapio decoupling model were constructed to analyze the spatio-temporal changes of farmland ecosystem carbon footprint and its decoupling effect with grain yield in major grain-producing areas.The results showed that:(1)The total carbon emissions of farmland ecosystem in major grain-producing areas showed a decreasing trend,with a spatial trend of“high in the south and low in the north”.Among them,the total carbon emission caused by agricultural inputs is the highest.(2)The total carbon absorption of farmland ecosystem showed an upward trend,with a spatial trend of“high in the middle and low in the north and south”.Among them,rice and other food crops have the highest total carbon absorption.(3)The carbon footprint of farmland ecosystem showed a downward trend,with a spatial trend of“low in the middle and high in the north and south”.More importantly,carbon footprint and food yield showed an alternating trend of“strong decoupling-weak decoupling-strong decoupling”,and showed spatial inequality.Therefore,targeted to food security as the goal,put forward low carbon agriculture transformation strategy suggestions.