新安江生态补偿环境经济效应及影响机制研究

Research on Environmental and Economic Effects and Influencing Mechanism of Xin’an River Basin Ecological Compensation

以新安江生态补偿为自然实验,基于2006—2020年黄山市和杭州市以及与之接壤城市的面板数据,运用双重差分和中介效应模型系统地探究了流域生态补偿政策的环境经济效应和影响路径。研究发现:新安江生态补偿对流域环境改善存在积极影响,且影响强度随政策实施周期推进逐渐降低;而对流域经济发展无明显作用,但却存在显著的异质性,其抑制了上游的经济发展而促进了下游的经济发展。进一步根据中介效应分析发现,新安江生态补偿通过影响地方财政收入和就业人数而对流域上下游产生了不同的经济影响。综上,尽管新安江流域生态补偿已经取得了良好的环境效果,但并未实现流域环境与经济的协同发展,其对上游地区经济发展的抑制作用仍是现阶段新安江流域生态补偿机制的短板。

This research investigated the pilot ecological compensation policy for Xin’an River Basin as a quasi-natural experiment based on panel data for Huangshan,Hangzhou,and adjacent cities from 2006 to 2020.The effects of the policy and associated paths for ecological compensation were systematically explored by using difference-in-differences and mediation models.The results showed that ecological compensation in the Xin’an River Basin positively affected environmental improvements in the basin,but the intensity of the impact of the policy gradually decreased during the pilot implementation stage.The policy had no obvious effect on economic development in the basin,where significant heterogeneity was observed.In particular,the policy had a restraining effect on economic development in the upstream region,whereas it promoted economic development in the downstream region.In addition,analysis of the mediation effect showed that the ecological compensation had different economic impacts on the upstream and downstream of the basin by affecting the local fiscal revenue and employment.In conclusion,ecological compensation in the Xin’an River Basin has generated beneficial environmental effects but it has not facilitated coordinated development of the environment and economy in the basin,the restraining effect of ecological compensation on economic development in the upstream region is a major shortcoming of the ecological compensation mechanism in the Xin’an River Basin.