经济增长-生态环境-人口集聚时空耦合及空间效应研究--以松花江流域为例

Spatio-Temporal Coupling and Spatial Effect of Economic Growth-Ecological Environment-Population Agglomeration: A Case Study of Songhua River Basin

基于2010—2019年松花江流域10个城市的面板数据,构建经济增长、生态环境与人口集聚系统耦合协同综合评价指标体系,利用耦合协调度模型、空间自相关模型和空间杜宾模型实证分析了系统综合水平指数变化趋势、耦合协调的时空异质特征和影响因素的空间效应。结果表明:综合发展水平指数大体平稳,整体呈上升趋势,但上升速度较为缓慢;系统耦合协调度整体上偏低,随时间变化呈平稳上升并趋于稳定的态势;全局莫兰指数均为正且表现出不同程度的显著性,说明松花江流域经济增长、生态环境、人口集聚系统存在正的空间自相关性,其空间集聚现象也是客观存在的;由空间杜宾模型以及效应分解可知,投资调整、政府能力会对地区耦合协调度的提高产生正向作用,城市化水平、教育投资、基础设施对于耦合协调度的提升没有起到预期正向作用。

Based on the panel data of 10 cities in the Songhua River Basin from 2010 to 2019,a coupling and collaborative comprehensive evaluation index system of economic growth,ecological environment and population agglomeration system was constructed,and the change trend of the system comprehensive level index,the temporal and spatial heterogeneous characteristics of coupling coordination and the spatial effect of influencing factors were empirically analyzed by using the coupling coordination degree model,spatial autocorrelation model and spatial Dubin model.The results showed that the comprehensive development level index was generally stable,and the overall upward trend was relatively slow.The coupling coordination degree of the system is low on the whole,and it increases steadily with time and tends to be stable.The global Moran’s I was positive and showed different degrees of significance,indicating that there was a positive spatial autocorrelation between economic growth,ecological environment and population agglomeration system in the Songhua River Basin,and its spatial agglomeration phenomenon was also objective.From the spatial Dubin model and effect decomposition,it can be seen that investment adjustment and government capacity will have a positive effect on the improvement of regional coupling coordination,while urbanization level,education investment,and infrastructure do not play a positive role in the improvement of coupling coordination.