新疆荒漠化治理与社会-经济-生态高质量发展耦合机制研究

The Study on Coupling Mechanism between Desertification Control and High Quality Development of Society-Economic-Ecology in Xinjiang

立足干旱区乡村振兴战略关于“生态宜居”与“生活富裕”协调发展的总要求,以新疆荒漠化治理社会经济系统耦合协调为研究对象,引入耦合协调模型以及GM(1,1)预测模型测度系统耦合协调状况以及未来趋势情况,构建荒漠化治理评价指标体系,探索荒漠化治理与社会经济内在的时空耦合协调机制。研究发现,通过荒漠化工程的实施,新疆地区的社会—经济—生态系统逐步发展到协调发展阶段,新疆社会经济生态系统仍处于不断协调过程中。GM(1,1)模型预测表明,未来5年三子系统的耦合协调度处于稳步上升阶段。

Based on the general requirements of the coordinated development of“ecologically livable”and“well-off life”in the rural revitalization strategy of arid region,this paper takes the coupled coordination of the social and economic system of desertification control in Xinjiang as the research object,introduces the coupled coordination model and GM(1,1)prediction model to measure the coupled coordination status and future trend of the system,constructs the evaluation index system of desertification control,and explores the spatial-temporal coupling coordination mechanism between desertification management and social economy.It is found that the social and economic ecosystem in Xinjiang has gradually developed to the stage of coordinated development through the implementation of desertification projects,and the social and economic ecosystem in Xinjiang is still in the process of continuous coordination.The prediction of GM(1,1)model shows that the coupling coordination degree of the three subsystems will be in the stage of steady increase in the next five years.