基于灰色关联分析的山西省旅游经济发展影响因素研究

Research on Factors Influencing Tourism Economic Development in Shanxi Province Based on Grey Correlation Analysis

基于灰色关联分析方法,利用山西省2011—2020年近10 a的数据,选取经济支撑因子、旅游交通因子、居民生活水平因子、环境质量因子、旅游服务因子、人力资源因子、信息资源因子、旅游地吸引力因子8个一级指标和20个二级指标,对山西省旅游经济发展的影响因素进行了分析。结果表明:各一级指标与山西省旅游收入的关联度由大到小排序依次为旅游地吸引力因子、居民生活水平因子、信息资源因子、经济支撑因子、人力资源因子、环境质量因子、旅游服务因子、旅游交通因子;各二级指标的关联度都大于0.6,并且主要分布在0.7~0.8之间;国内游客人数、第三产业增加值和互联网宽带接入用户数与旅游收入的关联度最大,客运量和入境过夜游客人数关联度相对较小。最后,有针对性地提出相应的策略与建议,以期能促进山西省旅游经济健康稳步发展。

Based on the grey correlation analysis method with supporting data of Shanxi Province from 2011 to 2020,an analysis has been made of the influencing factors of tourism economic development in Shanxi Province,with 8 primary and 20 secondary indicators elected,including economic support factor,tourism transportation factor,residents’living standards factor,environmental quality factor,tourism service factor,human resources factor,information resources factor,and tourist attraction factor.The results show that the correlation between each primary indicator and tourism income in Shanxi Province is ranked in the following desending order:tourist attraction factor,residents’living standards factor,information resources factor,economic support factor,human resources factor,environmental quality factor,tourism service factor,tourism transportation factor.The correlation degree of each secondary indicator is greater than 0.6,mainly distributed between 0.7 and 0.8;the number of domestic tourists,the added value of the tertiary industry,and internet broadband access users are highly correlatied with tourism revenue,while the correlation between passenger volume and the number of inbound overnight tourists is relatively small.Finally,corresponding strategic suggestions are proposed to ensure a healthy and steady development of the tourism economy in Shanxi Province.