流域水文模型参数不确定性量化技术研究进展

Research Progress in Quantifying Parameters Uncertainties in Basin Hydrological Models

流域水文模型参数存在不确定性,不确定性对模型模拟与预测的精度产生显著影响。如何科学量化参数不确定性并分析其产生的不良影响是水文模拟中亟待解决的重要难题。为了研究这一问题,回顾和归纳了不确定性量化研究领域涉及的方法与技术,讨论了不确定性研究各环节中的成熟成果与亟待解决的问题。最后,对流域水文模型参数不确定性量化技术的应用前景进行了展望。

There is uncertainty in the parameters of the basin hydrological model,and the uncertainty has a significant impact on the accuracy of model simulation and prediction.How to scientifically quantify parameter uncertainties and analyze their adverse effects is an important challenge to be solved in hydrological simulation.To investigate this issue,the methods and techniques involved in the field of uncertainty quantification research are reviewed and summarized,and the mature results and urgent problems in various aspects of uncertainty research are discussed.Finally,the prospect of the application of parameter uncertainty quantification techniques for watershed hydrological models is presented.