天津市抛荒地分布及驱动机理研究

Study on the Distribution and Driving Mechanism of Abandoned Cultivated Land in Tianjin

为探明天津市耕地抛荒总体情况和驱动机理,基于MODIS数据,识别并估算2010—2017年天津市耕地抛荒规模,利用核密度分析方法对其空间分布格局进行判定,并基于OLS分析方法系统分析天津市耕地抛荒驱动机理。结果表明:(1)2010—2017年天津市抛荒地规模总体呈减少的态势,年均减少726.26 hm^(2);(2)天津市抛荒地呈现出明显的“阶梯式”分布规律,主要集中在天津市中部和西南部地区,而位于远郊区的蓟县南部、宝坻区北部和滨海新区是抛荒地分布的冷点区;(3)人均收入和总人口密度对耕地抛荒呈现正向影响,海拔、坡度和距河流距离对耕地抛荒呈现负向影响。整体来看,地理资源条件的影响更为显著。

In order to explore the overall situation and driving mechanism of cultivated land abandonment in Tianjin,this study identified and estimated the scale of abandoned cultivated land in Tianjin from 2010 to 2017 based on MODIS data,used nuclear density analysis method to determine its spatial distribution pattern,and systematically analyzed the driving mechanism of cultivated land abandonment in Tianjin based on OLS analysis method.The results showed that:(1)From 2010 to 2017,the scale of abandoned cultivated land in Tianjin showed a general trend of decrease,with an average annual decrease of 726.26 hm^(2);(2)The distribution of abandoned cultivated land in Tianjin showed an obvious stepped pattern,mainly concentrated in the central and southwestern areas of Tianjin,while the south of Jixian,the north of Baodi District and Binhai New Area,located in the outer suburbs were the cold spot areas of abandoned land distribution;(3)Per capita income and population density had positive effects on farmland abandonment,while elevation,slope and distance from river had negative effects on farmland abandonment.Overall,the influence of geographical resource conditions is more significant.