最严格水资源管理制度政策效果仿真研究——以江苏为例

Simulation Research on the Policy Effect of the Strictest Water Resources Management System—Taking Jiangsu as an Example

为探索中国最严格水资源管理制度实施成效,本研究运用系统动力学方法构建最严格水资源管理制度政策效果仿真模型,以江苏为例,首先从横向比较研究的视角,设置无政策和政策延续两种情景,分析有无政策时用水总量、用水效率和水功能区纳污的管控效果;然后从纵向比较研究的视角,分析政策实施后2013—2030年用水总量、用水效率和水功能区纳污控制效果的演化情况。结果显示:①横向对比,相对于无政策情景,政策延续情景下的区域水资源需求总量、万元GDP用水量以及污废水中的COD排放总量均有不同幅度的下降,且降幅逐年扩大,政策成效显著;②纵向对比,政策延续情景下,2030年区域水资源需求总量将超过国家最严格水资源管理制度考核要求近20亿m3,2025年万元GDP用水量降幅低于“十四五”节水型社会建设规划目标近2%,2030年污废水中的COD排放总量将比2021年升高近24%,政策管控水平仍需进一步提升。

In order to explore the implementation effect of China’s Strictest Water Resources Management System,this paper uses the system dynamics method to build a simulation model of the policy effect of the Strictest Water Resources Management System.Taking Jiangsu as an example,firstly,from the perspective of horizontal comparative study,we set up two scenarios:no policy and policy continuation,and analyze the control effect of total water consumption,water use efficiency and pollution reception in water functional areas with or without policy.Then,from the perspective of longitudinal comparative study,we analyze the evolution of total water consumption,water use efficiency and pollution control effect in water functional areas from 2013 to 2030 after the implementation of the policy.The results show that from the perspective of horizontal comparison,compared with the scenario without policy,the total demand of regional water resources,the water consumption of 10,000 yuan GDP and the total discharge of COD in sewage and wastewater under the scenario of policy continuation have all declined in different degrees,and the decline has been expanding year by year,and the policy has achieved remarkable results.From the perspective of vertical comparison,under the policy continuation scenario,the total demand for regional water resources in 2030 will exceed the assessment requirements of the Strictest Water Resources Management System by nearly 2 billion m3,and the water consumption per 10,000 yuan GDP in 2025 will drop by nearly 2%below the goal of water-saving society construction in the 14th Five-Year Plan.In 2030,the total discharge of COD in sewage and wastewater will increase by nearly 24%compared with that in 2021,and the level of policy control still needs to be further improved.