地方政府债务与私人投资——基于行业异质性和债务融资渠道的实证研究

Local Government Debt and Private Investment:An Empirical Study Based on Industry Heterogeneity and Debt Financing Channels

近年来,持续增长的地方政府债务规模已经成为影响经济发展和金融系统稳定的重要风险来源。本文选取2008-2019年29个省市自治区的政府债务指标,基于私人投资行业异质性和债务融资渠道差异,深入探究地方政府债务对私人投资的影响效应。研究发现:(1)从总体上看,地方政府债务挤出私人投资。分行业来看,债务对房地产投资和非房地产私人部门投资存在非对称的影响效应,强挤出房地产投资,对非房地产私人部门投资存在微弱的挤入效应。(2)分债务融资渠道来看,相对于地方政府公开债务,非公开市场债务对私人投资的挤出效应更强,并且公开市场债务有利于非房地产私人部门投资。因此,后续应加强金融精准支持实体经济、提高地方政府债务资金使用效率和继续优化债务结构。

In recent years,the continuously growing scale of local government debt has become an important source of risk affecting economic development and the stability of the financial system.This paper selects the government debt indicators of 29 provinces,cities and autonomous regions from 2008 to 2019.Based on the heterogeneity of private investment industry and the differences of local government debt financing,this paper explores the impact of local government debt on private investment within the region.The study found that:(1)Erspective of different industries,debt has an asymmetric effect on real estate investment and in general,local government debt crowded out private investment.From the non-real estate private sector investment,forcing out real estate investment,but having a weak crowding effect on non-real estate private sector investment.(2)From the perspective of debt financing channels,compared with local government public debt,non-public market debt has stronger crowding out effect on private investment,and open market debt is conducive to non-real estate private sector investment.Therefore,we should further strengthen targeted financial support for the real economy,improve the efficiency of local government debt funds and continue to optimize the debt structure.