基于扩展STIRPAT模型与情景分析法的青岛市能源消费碳排放预测及减碳措施研究

Research on energy consumption carbon emission forecasting and carbon reduction strategies in Qingdao based on extended STIRPAT model and scenario analysis method

在深入调研青岛市能源消费和碳排放情况基础上,通过构建青岛市扩展STIRPAT碳排放预测模型,结合灰色GM(1,1)预测模型对青岛市“十四五”期间能源消费碳排放进行预测,同时利用情景分析法,对影响碳排放因素进行了定量分析。结果表明,通过调整能源结构与降低能源强度,可以有效降低能源消费碳排放量。结合青岛市实际情况,从可再生能源应用、能源供给侧消费侧革命、碳捕集利用技术、海洋碳汇建设等方面提出青岛市实现“双碳”目标的应对措施。

On the basis of in-depth investigation of the energy consumption and carbon emission in Qingdao,this study constructed the extended STIRPAT carbon emission forecasting model,combining it with the gray GM(1,1)prediction model,and predicted the carbon emission from energy consumption in Qingdao during the“14th five-year plan”period.The factors affecting carbon emission were quantitatively analyzed by using the scenario analysis method.The results show that by adjusting the energy structure and reducing energy intensity,the carbon emissions from energy consumption can be effectively reduced.According to the actual situation of Qingdao,the strategies to achieve the“double carbon”goal are proposed from the aspects of renewable energy application,energy supply-side and consumption-side revolution,carbon capture and utilization technology and marine carbon sink construction.