城市货运需求模型综述

Review of Urban Freight Demand Models

随着城市货运需求的激增,城市货运需求模型在货运需求预测、交通系统优化、货运政策评估等方面的作用日益重要。该文在搜集整理国内外城市货运需求模型的基础上,根据参考单元首先将其分为基于车辆出行、基于货物、基于取配送活动和基于出行链四类,并分析各类模型的建模思路和技术方法。其次,对四类模型进行比对分析,得出结论:基于车辆出行模型的优势在于对货运现状描述,基于货物模型和基于取配送活动模型的优势在于评估宏观政策的影响,而基于出行链模型较的优势在于对微观政策措施的评估。最后,讨论未来进一步研究的方向。

With the surge of urban freight demand,urban freight demand models are playing an increasingly important role in freight travelling demand,analyze transportation system change and evaluate freight policies influences,etc.On the basis of researching domestic and foreign urban freight demand models,this article first divides them into four categories based on reference units:vehicle-based models,commodity-based models,movement-based models and trip-chain-based models,modelling procedure and research method are analyzed respectively.Then the application areas are compared among the four types of models.The results show that vehicle-based models are used for description of current urban freight situation,movement-based models and commodity-based models are better applied in macro policy evaluation,and trip-chain-based models are more suitable for micro policy evaluation.At last,some issues are proposed for further studies.