灰色马尔科夫模型在我国病毒性肝炎发病率预测中的应用研究

The Application of Gray Markov Model in the Incidence Prediction of Viral Hepatitis in China

为科学、准确的预测我国病毒性肝炎的发病趋势,利用灰色马尔科夫模型对我国2000-2016年病毒性肝炎发病率进行拟合,对2017-2019年发病率数据进行预测,并与灰色GM(1,1)预测模型比较以检验模型拟合与预测效果.结果表明,2000-2016年我国病毒性肝炎发病率的灰色马尔科夫模型拟合的平均相对误差为3.06%,灰色GM(1,1)模型拟合的平均相对误差为11.96%;2017-2019年灰色马尔科夫模型预测的平均相对误差为2.05%,灰色GM(1,1)模型预测的平均相对误差为13.47%.灰色马尔科夫模型比灰色预测模型的预测结果更准确,模型精度更优,是我国病毒性肝炎发病率预测效果较为科学、准确的预测模型.

To scientifically and accurately predict the incidence trend of viral hepatitis in China,,a grey Markov model was used to fit the incidence of viral hepatitis in 2000⁃2016—in China.For diction of 2017⁃2019 incidence data,and together with a gray GM(1,1)prediction model is compared to test the model fit and pre⁃diction effect.The results showed that the mean relative error of grey Markov model fitting for 2000⁃2016 was 3.06%,11.96%for gray GM(1,1).The mean relative error of grey Markov model fitting for 2017⁃2019 was 2.05%,13.47%for Gray GM(1,1).The gray Markov model is more accurate and more accurate than the gray prediction model,which is a more scientific and accurate prediction model for predicting the incidence of vi⁃ral hepatitis in China.