时间序列下河北省旅游业投资效率实证研究——基于DEA分析法

Exploring the Efficiency of Tourism in Hebei Province under Time Series——An Empirical Study Based on DEA

现阶段对河北省旅游业投资效率的研究多局限于构建评价体系等定性研究领域,缺乏通过使用定量研究的方法对其进行数字化呈现。基于DEA-BCC模型,以年份为决策单元,研究了2005年至2019年河北省旅游业投资效率,得出如下结论及建议:总体来看,河北省旅游业投资效率不高,且年份之间波动较大。导致河北省旅游业投资效率不高的主要原因,一是投入不均和总额偏低,二是产出不足。在投入指标方面,4A及5A级景区数量存在着投入冗余状况,应该采取降速提质的策略;旅游业从业人数投入相对合理,应在稳定的基础上保持适度增长;旅游资本投入不足则是影响河北省旅游业投资效率的主要原因,应加大投入规模同时做好风险控制。在产出指标方面,河北省全年接待旅客人次处于相对合理状态,河北省旅游总收入则长期处于产出不足状态,因此,在全年接待旅客人次指标相对稳定和相对合理的情况下,提高人均旅游收入就成为增加河北省旅游总收入的重中之重。

At present,the research on the investment efficiency of tourism industry in Hebei Province is mostly limited to the qualitative research fields such as the construction of evaluation system,and lacks the digital presentation through the use of quantitative research methods.Based on the DEA-BCC model,this paper studies the tourism investment efficiency of Hebei Province from 2005 to 2019 by taking the year as the decision-making unit,and draws the following conclusions and suggestions:In general,the tourism investment efficiency of Hebei Province is not high and fluctuates greatly between years.The main reasons leading to the low efficiency of tourism investment in Hebei Province are,firstly,the uneven investment and low total amount,and secondly,insufficient output.In terms of input index,there is redundancy in the number of 4A and 5A scenic spots,and the strategy of reducing speed and improving quality should be adopted.The investment in the number of tourism employees is relatively reasonable and should be maintained on a stable basis.The insufficiency of tourism capital investment is the main reason that affects the efficiency of tourism investment in Hebei Province.It is necessary to increase the investment scale and do a good job in risk control.In terms of output indicators,the number of annual tourists is relatively reasonable in Hebei province.The total income of tourism of Hebei has been insufficient in the output.Therefore,under the condition that the annual tourist number indicator is relatively stable and reasonable,improving the per capita tourism income has become the top priority of increasing the total tourism income of Hebei Province.