基于最小二乘的输电线路运行风险评估及运行状态预测

Risk Assessment and Operation Status Prediction of Transmission Lines Based on Least Squares

由于输电线路受环境因素和人为因素的影响,输电稳定性和供电可靠性受到一定程度的削弱。在多数研究中,分别分析了风、雷、鸟等单个因素对输电线路的影响,为了探索多因素共同对输电线路运行状态的影响,本文建立输电线路运行状态评估模型和运行状态预测模型。首先对输电线路运行影响因素进行分析,得到6种关键影响因素;然后基于马尔科夫链和最小二乘支持向量机算法构建输电线路运行状态评估模型,寻找关键影响因素对应的输电线路风险等级;最后基于贝叶斯网络建立输电线路运行状态预测模型,并将关键影响因素输入进行模型验证。结果表明,预测正确率为85.25%,预测模型具有一定的实用性。

Due to the influence of environmental and human factors,the stability of power transmission lines and the reliability of power supply are compromised to some extent.In most studies,the individual effects of factors such as wind,lightning,and birds on power transmission lines have been separately analyzed.In order to explore the combined effects of multiple factors on the operational state of power transmission lines,this paper establishes a model for assessing the operational state and predicting the operational state of power transmission lines.Firstly,an analysis of factors influencing the operation of power transmission lines is conducted,resulting in the identification of six key influencing factors.Then,a power transmission line operational state assessment model is constructed based on Markov chains and the least squares support vector machine algorithm to determine the risk levels corresponding to the identified key influencing factors.Finally,a power transmission line operational state prediction model is built using Bayesian networks,and the identified key influencing factors are inputted for model validation.The results demonstrate an accuracy rate of 85.25%in predictions,indicating a certain degree of practicality for the proposed prediction model.