油价对碳排放权价影响的区域性差异研究

Study on Regional Differences in the Impact of Crude Oil on Carbon Emissions Prices

为加快完善全国统一碳排放权交易体系,分析原油价格对碳排放权价格的作用路径,建立Var模型并进行脉冲响应和方差分解,研究原油期货市场和中国碳排放权交易市场相关性的区域性差异。研究表明:(1)北京、深圳、湖北碳市场碳价波动受布伦特原油期货价格变动影响,但影响具一定滞后性。(2)从短期冲击效果看,布伦特原油期货价格可影响北京、深圳、湖北碳价波动,反之则影响较小,但影响程度存在区域性差异。(3)油价对北京、湖北、深圳碳排放权交易价格方差贡献度较低,即其他因素对碳排放价格影响更大。当前需进一步推动全国碳排放数据报送系统的完善、统筹分配碳排放配额指标以及引入完备的市场交易机制。

In order to accelerate the improvement of the national unified carbon emission trading system,this paper analyzes the impact path of crude oil price on carbon emission trading price,establishes the Var model,and makes impulse response and variance decomposition to study the regional differences about the correlation between the crude oil futures market and the carbon emission trading market in China.The results show that:(1)The fluctuation of carbon prices in the carbon markets of Beijing,Shenzhen and Hubei will be affected by the price changes of Brent crude oil futures,but the impact has hysteresis.(2)From the perspective of short-term impact effect,Brent crude oil futures prices can affect the fluctuations of carbon prices in Beijing,Shenzhen and Hubei.Instead,the impact is small.The degree of impact is different in different areas.(3)Crude oil price contributes less to the variance of carbon emission trading prices in Beijing,Hubei and Shenzhen.Namely,there may be other factors that have a greater impact on carbon emission prices.This paper holds that it is necessary to further promote the improvement of the national carbon emission data reporting system,set up the overall allocation of carbon emission quota indexs,and introduce a complete market trading mechanism.