环境保护税能否促进区域绿色全要素生产率增长?——基于贝叶斯时空统计的实证研究

Can Environmental Protection Tax Promote Regional Green Total Factor Productivity Growth?An Empirical Study Based on Bayesian Space-time Statistics

绿色生产是中国经济高质量发展的重要引擎,环境保护税是促进企业绿色生产的有效手段。以中国环境保护税征收标准改革为自然实验,基于2013—2020年中国31个省区市面板数据,运用贝叶斯时空统计方法考察了环境保护税对区域绿色全要素生产率(GTFP)的影响效应及作用机制。结果显示:环境保护税对区域绿色全要素生产率增长具有正向促进效应,且在东部地区、工业发达及污染严重的地区作用显著。进一步机制分析表明:环境保护税可能通过促进技术创新、推动产业结构转型及提高资源利用效率等路径影响区域绿色全要素生产率增长。研究结论为进一步完善中国环境保护税法提供了实证支持,也为全面构建环境经济政策框架体系提供了决策依据。

Green production is an important engine for high-quality economic development in China,and en⁃vironmental protection tax is an effective means to promote green production in enterprises.Based on the panel da⁃ta of 31 provinces in China from 2013 to 2020,this paper investigates the effect and mechanism of environmental protection tax on regional green total factor productivity(GTFP)by using Bayesian spatiotemporal statistical meth⁃od.The results show that environmental protection tax has a positive effect on regional GTFP growth,and the effect is significant in the eastern region,developed industry and heavily polluted areas.Further mechanism analysis shows that environmental protection tax may affect regional GTFP growth through promoting technological innova⁃tion,promoting industrial structure transformation and improving resource utilization efficiency.The conclusions of this study provide empirical support for further improving China's environmental protection tax law,and also pro⁃vide a decision-making basis for comprehensively constructing environmental economic policy framework system.