金融发展、物流发展与经济增长关系的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Financial Development,Logistics Development and Economic Growth

将金融发展、物流发展与经济增长纳入一个分析框架,基于我国2004—2018年的省级面板数据,运用时点固定效应模型,实证分析了金融发展、物流发展与经济增长之间的关系。理论分析表明,金融业通过资本形成机制、优化资源配置等七大路径促进经济增长,但由于金融资源错配、过度金融化的缘故,金融发展与经济增长之间为非线性关系;物流产业能够通过保障生产与消费活动的顺利进行、降低生产与流通成本等六大路径促进经济的高质量发展;金融业与物流业协同发展可以通过促进金融产业发展、促进物流产业发展、助力解决小微企业融资问题、优化公司治理以促进经济增长。实证结果表明,金融发展与经济增长之间存在非线性关系,物流发展对经济增长具有显著的促进作用。基于此,文章针对性提出了坚持金融供给侧结构性改革,努力实现现代金融业的高质量发展;多举措发展现代物流业;大力发展供应链金融业务,推动金融与物流的协同发展;优化营商环境,重构宏观调控模式;加强专利保护,发挥技术进步的经济效应等针对性建议。

Incorporating financial development,logistics development and economic growth into an analytical framework,and based on a mechanism analysis,this paper conducts an empirical analysis of the relationship be-tween financial development,logistics development and economic growth by using China’s provincial panel data from 2004 to 2018 and time-point fixed effects model.Theoretical analysis shows that:The financial industry pro-motes economic growth through seven major paths including formation mechanism of capital and optimization of re-source allocation;however,due to the misallocation of financial resources and excessive financialization,the rela-tionship between financial development and economic growth is nonlinear;logistics industry can promote the high-quality development of the economy by ensuring the smooth progress of production and consumption activities,re-ducing production and circulation costs and other four ways;the collaborative development of financial industry and logistics industry can boost the economic growth through promoting the development of financial industry and logis-tics industry,helping solve financing problems in small and micro enterprises,and optimizing the corporate gover-nance.The empirical results show that there is a nonlinear relationship between financial development and econom-ic growth,and logistics development has a significant role in promoting economic growth.Based on this,this paper puts forward specific suggestions such as persisting in the supply-side structural reform to realize the high-quality development of modern financial industry,taking multiple measures to develop the modern logistics industry,vigor-ously developing the financial business of supply chain to promote the collaborative development of finance and lo-gistics,optimizing business environment to reconstruct the macro-regulation mode,and strengthening patent protec-tion and to give full play to the economic effects of technological progress.