COVID-19传染病动力学研究数学模型概述

An Overview of Mathematical Models for the Dynamics of COVID-19 Infectious Diseases

介绍了SI、SIR、SIRS、SEIR模型及基本再生数R0的求解,结合传染病动力学数学模型在新冠肺炎传染病(COVID-19)的发展现状,简述了SEIR传染病模型和多种变体SEIR传染病模型在新冠疫情仿真预测中的应用情况,整理其关注的因素及分析方法,对比两类模型的相似研究点和不同点,得出现阶段国内仍需加强防预管理措施,以及在时间管理和防预措施强度对疫情传播的影响、疫苗资源的最优分配策略和环境领域中某因素对传染病指标的影响等方向值得探讨和研究。

The SI,SIR,SIRS,SEIR models and the solution of the basic regeneration number R 0 were intro-duced.Combined with the development status of the infectious disease dynamics mathematical model in COVID-19,the application of the SEIR infectious disease model and various variants of the SEIR infectious disease model in the simulation and prediction of the COVID-19 epidemic was briefly described.The factors concerned and analysis meth-ods were summarized,and the similarities and differences between the two models were compared.It was concluded that prevention management measures should be strengthened in China at the present stage.The impact of time man-agement and the intensity of prevention measures on the spread of the epidemic,and the optimal allocation strategy of vaccine resources,the influence of some factors in the environmental field on infectious disease indicators should be discussed and studied.