基于地理探测器的福建省台风灾情影响因素分析

Research on Influencing Factors of Typhoon Disasters in Fujian Province based on Geodetector

台风灾害给福建省造成了严重的生命和财产损失。以福建省县域为研究单元,通过对2009~2020年的台风灾害灾情数据进行分析,结合降水数据、风场数据、地形数据、河网数据、土壤类型、植被指数、人口密度和GDP等资料,研究了福建省台风灾情时空格局特征。在此基础上,运用地理探测器方法分析了福建省台风灾情的影响因素。结果表明:共有38个台风登陆或影响福建,其中16个超强台风造成的损失最严重,灾害损失严重地区主要分布在福建省沿海地区。台风灾害致灾因子、孕灾环境因子和人类活动因子中,3 d内最大降水量、台风最大风速和距台风中心距离对受灾人口、死亡人口、受灾农作物和直接经济损失的影响最大。该研究成果可为台风灾害风险的影响因素定量化分析提供方法参考,为我国的防灾减灾做出基础性贡献。

Typhoon disasters are important natural disasters that lead to casualties and property losses in Fujian Province,China.Based on the historic typhoon disasters data from 2009 to 2020,precipitation,wind field,terrain,soil texture,NDVI,population density and GDP,the spatiotemporal patterns were analyzed on the county scale.Besides,the influencing factors of typhoon disasters were also explored by Geodetector technique.The results show that there were 38 typhoons landfalling or affecting Fujian Province,16 super typhoons of which caused the most serious losses,while the most serious region mainly located in coastal areas.The maximum three-day precipitation,maximum wind velocity and distance to typhoon center are the three dominant factors that influenced the affected population,deaths,-damage crops and direct economic losses.The study can be employed to quantify influencing factors and provide theoretical reference for disaster risk–reduction in Fujian Province.