汾河流域水土资源耦合协调格局及驱动因素

Coupling coordination pattern and driving factors of soil and water resources in Fenhe River Basin of China

开展区域水土资源耦合协调研究,旨在促进区域社会经济发展与水土资源的可持续利用。选取汾河流域为研究区,基于2006、2013、2018年多源遥感监测数据、社会经济统计数据及再分析产品数据,构建了水土资源耦合协调评价指标体系,并采用耦合协调度模型、空间自相关模型及地理探测器对研究区2006—2018年水土资源耦合协调度进行测度,并识别其主导影响因子。结果表明:(1)2006、2013、2018年流域水土资源耦合协调度以低度协调与中度协调为主,整体为[0.10,0.50]。空间上,高值区主要位于流域中上游区域,低值区集中于中下游区域,且具有明显的时间异质性。多年演变趋势为向上开口的抛物线。(2)研究期流域水土资源耦合协调Moran's I值分别为0.274、0.266、0.195,总体经历高—高—低的下降过程,全局相关性水平下降,空间集聚效应降低,区域差异减小。局部自相关主要显示为高-高(H-H)和低-低(L-L)两类。(3)影响汾河流域水土资源耦合协调度空间分异的主导因子依次为年降水量、生活用水量占比、产水模数、人均建设用地面积等,其中,年降水量与产水模数影响因子间的交互作用最强。未来应该加强流域水土资源的合理配置,优化土地利用结构,协调统筹流域上中下游、大中小城镇之间的水土资源分配及用量,积极促进区域跨流域调水及土地资源的修复整治。

The research on coupling coordination of regional water and land resources aims to promote regional social and economic development and sustainable utilization of water and land resources.In this research,the Fenhe River Basin is selected as the research area.Based on the multi-source remote sensing data,socio-economic statistical data,and reanalysis product data in 2006,2013,and 2018,the evaluation index system of water and soil resources coupling coordination is constructed.The coupling coordination degree model,spatial autocorrelation model,and geographic detector are used to measure the coupling coordination degree of water and soil resources in the study area from 2006 to 2018,and identify its dominant influencing factors.The results showed that:(1)In 2006,2013,and 2018,the coupling coordination degree of water and land resources in the basin was mainly low coordination and moderate coordination,which was between[0.10,0.50].In space,the highvalue area is mainly located in the middle and upper reaches of the basin,and the low-value area is concentrated in the middle and lower reaches and has obvious time heterogeneity.The multi-year evolution trend is characterized by an upward opening parabola.(2)The Moran's I values of coupling coordination of water and land resources in the study period were 0.274,0.266,and 0.195,respectively.The whole basin experienced a highhigh-low decline process,the global correlation level decreased,the spatial agglomeration effect decreased,and the regional differences decreased.Local autocorrelation is mainly shown as high-high(H-H)and low-low(LL).(3)The dominant factors affecting the spatial differentiation of the coupling coordination degree of water and soil resources in the Fenhe River Basin are annual precipitation,the proportion of domestic water consumption,water production modulus,per capita construction land area,etc.Among them,the interaction between annual average precipitation and water production modulus is the strongest.Based on this,in the future we should strengthen the rational allocation of water and land resources in the basin,optimize the structure of land use,coordinate of water and land resources between the upper and middle reaches of the basin,large,medium,and small towns allocation and usage,and actively promote regional inter-basin water transfer and land resources remediation.