环流特征量在径流量预测中的应用

Application of Circulation Characteristic Quantity in Runoff Prediction

以1961—2021年年降水量资料与国家气候中心的130项环流指数资料及径流量资料为研究对象,寻找径流量变化规律,分析上一年度与径流量相关性较大的环流指数因子,采用偏最小二乘回归方法建模,对王奔水文站年径流量进行预测。通过回代检验发现,模型对峰值的预测虽然在数值上有偏差,但趋势预报准确,尤其是2010年与2019年预测效果较好。利用模型对2021年王奔站年径流量进行预测,预测值为10.1602亿m 3,实测值为9.5043亿m 3,预测结果与实际情况较为接近,说明此模型可用于业务实践,为水资源的合理开发利用提供参考。

Annual precipitation data,130 circulation indices and runoff data from the National Climate Center from 1961 to 2021 are used as research objects to find the variation rule of runoff.The study analyzes the circulation exponential factors which are closely related to the runoff in the last year,uses the partial least squares regression method,and analyzes the annual runoff of Wangben Hydrology Station.Through back test,it is found that although there is a deviation in the prediction of peak value,the prediction of trend is accurate,especially in 2010 and 2019.The annual runoff of Wangben Hydrology Station in 2021 is predicted by the model.The predicted value is 1.01602 billion m 3,and the measured value is 0.95043 billion m 3.The predicted result is relatively close to the actual situation.This indicates that the model can be applied in practice,to provide reference for the rational development and utilization of water resource.