中国对RCEP成员国跨境电商出口影响因素及贸易潜力的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on the Influencing Factors and Trade Potential of China's Cross-border E-commerce Exports to RCEP Member Countries

RCEP为中国跨境电商出口发展带来了新动能,也为成员国经贸往来提供了新的契机。选取2010—2021年面板数据,基于拓展的贸易引力模型,实证检验中国对RCEP成员国跨境电商出口的影响因素及贸易潜力。研究表明,跨境电商出口交易额与经济规模、消费差距、贸易开放度、互联网信息化水平以及人口数量呈正相关关系,与地理距离呈负相关关系。贸易潜力方面,14个RCEP成员国中9个属于潜力巨大型,3个属于潜力开拓型,2个属于潜力再造型。应抓住东南亚人口红利,扩大跨境电商出口规模;完善跨境基础设施建设,缩短贸易距离;针对不同贸易潜力国家,采取差异化策略。

RCEP has brought new momentum to the development of China's cross-border e-commerce exports and pro⁃vided new opportunities for economic and trade exchanges among member countries.Based on the expanded trade gravity model,this paper selects panel data from 2010 to 2021 to empirically tests the influencing factors and trade potential of China's cross-border e-commerce exports to RCEP member countries.Research shows that cross-border e-commerce ex⁃port transaction volume is positively correlated with economic scale,consumption gap,trade openness,internet informati⁃zation level and population,and negatively correlated with geographical distance.In terms of trade potential,9 of the 14 RCEP member countries have huge potential,3 of them have developing potential,and 2 of them need potential recon⁃struction.We should seize the demographic dividend in Southeast Asia to expand the scale of cross-border e-commerce exports;improve cross-border infrastructure construction to shorten trade distances;and adopt differentiated strategies for countries with different trade potentials.