“生命周期”视角下的西欧绿党:评估与展望

The“Lifespan”of Green Parties in Western Europe:Evaluation and Prospect

西欧绿党已经发展成为一股不容小觑的政治力量,但各国绿党在选举参与、议会实力和政府绩效等方面却表现出很大不同。运用政党生命周期理论和方法对西欧17个国家绿党政治表现的实证分析表明,绿党是一种受限于不同生命周期的有生命的组织,要想产生越来越大的政治影响力,就必须依次跨过其生命历程中的“竞选活动”“议会代表资格”“政府任职”三个门槛,而其历史发展过程可通过生命周期曲线的模态、离散度、偏度加以描绘。依据生命周期模式可将绿党分为强势、温和与弱势三种不同类型。可以预见,绿党在比利时、芬兰、德国、爱尔兰、卢森堡、瑞典等国仍将是主要的政治参与者,在奥地利、法国、丹麦、瑞士、挪威等国将保持上升势头,而在希腊、葡萄牙、西班牙、意大利等国则在政治上很可能仍不太重要。

Green parties in Western Europe have been developing into political forces that should not be ignored,but green parties’representations significantly differ from each other in terms of election participation,parliamentary strength and government performance.The empirical analysis of the political performances of Green parties in 17 Western European countries conducted through the party lifespan approach shows that Green parties are dynamic organizations subject to different lifespans.In order to extend their political influences,Green parties in their lifespan must pass three thresholds,which are electoral campaigning,parliamentary representation,and government participation.The historical development process of Green parties can be described by modality,dispersion and skewness of the lifespan-curves(Ls-curves).According to the party lifespan pattern,Green parties can be categorized into three different types,which are strong,moderate and weak Green party performers.It can be foreseen that Green parties in Belgium,Finland,Germany,Ireland,Luxembourg and Sweden will remain major political players,and those in Austria,France,Denmark,Switzerland and Norway will grow upwards,whereas those in Greece,Portugal,Spain and Italy are likely to remain politically unimportant.