“用煤开车”:新能源汽车真的减少了碳排放吗

"Driving with Coal":Does New EnergyVehicles Really Reduce Carbon Emissions?

新能源汽车作为七大战略新兴产业之一,是解决环境污染和能源紧缺问题的重要方向。在对新能源汽车使用、中国电力供应结构和碳排放理论分析的基础上,采用中国285个地级市2003—2019年的面板数据,使用双差分方法评估了新能源汽车推广政策对碳排放量的影响。研究发现,中国现有的电力生产结构并未对新能源汽车的节能降碳提供有效支撑,新能源汽车没有发挥技术所包含的碳减排效应,主要原因在于中国现阶段电源结构未能实现碳脱钩,新能源汽车的使用是把汽车行驶过程中的碳排放转移到了电力生产过程,电动车实际依然是在“用煤开车”。异质性检验显示地区电力生产结构与发挥新能源汽车的碳减排效应有一定相关性:第一,在传统资源型城市、电力缺口大的地区和火电占比更高的地区,新能源汽车的推广不利于地区的节能减排;第二,借助电力跨区域输送的“西电东送”工程,新能源汽车将东部地区增长的碳排放量转移至西北地区,却并未转移至水力发电为主的西南地区。因此,应大力推动电力生产的清洁化,根据地区电力生产结构和供需情况灵活制订新能源汽车推广计划,实现电力生产源头上的“碳脱钩”。

As one of the seven strategic emerging industries,new energy vehicles are considered an important direction to address environmental pollution and energy scarcity.Based on the theoretical analysis of the use of new energy vehicles,China's power supply structure and carbon emissions,this paper uses the panel data of 285 prefecture level cities in China from 2003 to 2019,and uses the double difference method to assess the impact of new energy vehicle promotion policies on regional carbon emissions.The research finds that China's existing power production structure does not provide effective support for energy saving and carbon reduction of new energy vehicles,and this conclusion is stil valid after a series of robustness tests.Mechanism testing shows that new energy vehicles have not fully utilized the carbon reduction effect contained in technology,mainly due to China's current power structure not achieving carbon decoupling.The use of new energy vehicles transfers carbon emissions from the driving process to the power production process,while electric vehicles are actually"driving with coal".Heterogeneity testing shows that there is a certain correlation between the regional electricity production structure and the carbon emission reduction effect of new energy vehicles.Firstly,the promotion of new energy vehicles is significantly detrimental to regional energy conservation and emission reduction in traditional resource-based cities,regions with large electricity gaps,and regions with significantly higher proportion of thermal power;Secondly,with the help of the"West East Power Transmission"project,which involves the cross regional transmission of electricity,the use of new energy vehicles has transferred the growing carbon emissions from the eastern region to the northwest region,but not to the southwest region,where hydroelectric power generation is the main source.We should vigorously promote the cleanliness of electricity production,flexibly formulate new energy vehicle promotion plans based on the regional electricity production structure and supply and demand situation,and achieve"carbon decoupling"at the source of electricity production.