代理家计调查:相对贫困识别与城市低保瞄准

Proxy Means Tests:Relative Poverty Identification and the Precision Index of Urban Subsistence Allowance

最低生活保障制度及其瞄准精度是识别和解决城市贫困问题的关键。基于可行能力理论,利用2019年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS2019)中的13503个城市家庭为样本,系统研究代理家计调查(Proxy Means Tests,PMT)对城市低保瞄准偏误及其减贫效果的作用。基于OLS统计推断构建城市代理家计调查框架,综合运用对象瞄准法、补差瞄准法分析城市低保识别效率,实证分析FGT指数的变化以检验城市代理家计调查在提升减贫效果方面的表现。研究发现:当前城市低保漏保偏误仍然十分突出,瞄准效率有待提升;代理家计调查在降低漏保率方面优于其在降低错保率方面的表现;与实际瞄准机制相比,代理家计调查在降低贫困广度、贫困深度和贫困群体内部不平等程度的表现突出。优化城市低保制度体系,可引入城市代理家计调查,以有效解决城市低保瞄准偏差问题,提升低保制度的减贫效应。

The system of subsistence allowances and its precision index are the key to identifying and solving urban poverty problems.Based on the theory of feasible ability,a systematic study was conducted by using 13503 urban household samples from the 2019 China Household Finance Survey(CHFS2019)to investigate the impact of Proxy Means Tests(PMT)on the precision index and poverty reduction effect of urban subsistence allowances.Based on OLS statistical inference,this paper constructs a framework for PMT,and comprehensively uses object targeting method and compensation targeting method to analyze the efficiency of urban subsistence allowance recognition.This paper also empirically analyzes the changes in FGT index to test the performance of PMT in improving poverty reduction effectiveness.Research has found that the current leakage and error are still very prominent,and the precision index needs to be improved.PMT's performance in reducing the rate of missed coverage is better than its performance in reducing the rate of false coverage.Compared with the actual targeting mechanism,PMT has shown outstanding performance in reducing poverty breadth,depth,and internal inequality among impoverished groups.Optimizing the urban subsistence allowance system can help PMT to effectively address the problem of deviation in targeting urban subsistence allowances and enhance the poverty reduction effect of the subsistence allowance system.