山东省工业碳排放脱钩关系及驱动因素探究

Exploring the Decoupling Relationship and Drivers of Industrial Carbon Emissions in Shandong Province

以2006—2020年山东省工业的相关数据为基础,采用IPCC的碳排放核算体系、Tapio脱钩模型和LMDI分解模型,对碳排放与经济增长的脱钩关系及驱动因素进行探究。实证分析得出结论:(1)能源消耗总量和碳排放总量整体上呈现上升态势;(2)原煤、焦炭和电力是每年产生碳排放量最多的三种能源;(3)研究期内仅出现弱脱钩、强脱钩、扩张型负脱钩和增长连接四种脱钩关系;(4)根据效应平均值,能源强度抑制碳排放,工业发展水平、人口规模和能源结构促进碳排放。建议山东省工业制定相应措施,以实现低碳经济可持续发展。

Using the IPCC's carbon accounting system,the Tapio decoupling model and the LMDI model,the paper explored the driving factors and the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth on the basis of data related to industry in Shandong Province from 2006 to 2020.The empirical analysis shows that:(a)Total energy consumption and total carbon emissions are on the rise overall.(b)Raw coal,coke and electricity are the three energy sources that generate the most carbon emissions each year.(c)Only four types of decoupling states emerge during the study period:weak decoupling,strong decoupling,expansive negative decoupling and expansive coupling.(d)According to the average of the effects,the energy intensity suppresses carbon emissions,and the level of industrial development,population scale and energy structure promote carbon emissions.It is suggested that industry in Shandong Province should develop corresponding measures to achieve sustainable development of low carbon economy.