面向2050的全球高等教育未来图景构想与启示——基于联合国教科文组织政策文本分析

A Global Vision of the Future of Higher Education for 2050 and Implications:Based on UNESCO Policy Text Analysis

近年来,外部环境的不确定性对未来高等教育带来重大挑战,各国高等教育机构积极开展结构变革与功能转型来应对风险与危机。外部挑战和内部变革要求全球高等教育界加强合作,共同寻找未来高等教育发展的确定性目标和实施路径,如何科学设计未来图景路线图成为世界高等教育当前最重要的任务。预判高等教育2050年发展目标和路径,对中国高等教育强国战略目标的实现至关重要。运用案例研究方法,选择联合国教科文组织作为研究案例,以“高等教育未来项目”以及相关的政策报告作为分析单元,通过深度解读高等教育专家、社会公众、利益相关者3类主体对2050年高等教育图景的设想,分析联合国教科文组织在第三届世界高等教育大会上提出的2050年高等教育路线图,从“理念、目标、属性、功能、结构、动力”6个核心要素入手,构建2050年全球高等教育未来图景的核心要素模型,总结未来高等教育变革的主要方向,即基于人文主义的高等教育理念,基于可持续发展的高等教育目标,基于准公共产品的高等教育属性,基于创造未来的高等教育功能,基于生态多样性的高等教育结构,以及基于新信息技术的高等教育动力。中国高等教育2050年远景规划的行动包括:高度重视人文主义价值观在高等教育发展中的作用,在全球可持续发展方面采取更加积极的行动,推动建立中国高质量公共教育体系,重塑面向未来的创新人才培养体系,构建中国高等教育多样性生态系统,持续加快信息技术与高等教育深度融合。

In recent years,the uncertainty of the external environment has brought significant challenges to future higher education.The higher education institutions in various countries have actively carried out structural change and functional transformation to address the risks and crises.External challenges and internal changes require the global higher education community to strengthen cooperation and jointly find definitive goals and implementation paths for the future development of higher education,and how to scientifically design a roadmap for the future of global higher education has become the most important task for the world’s higher education community at present.Predicting the development goals and paths of higher education in 2050 in advance is crucial to achieving the strategic goal of becoming a powerful country in China’s higher education.Using the case study method and selecting UNESCO as the research case,“The Futures of Higher Education Project”and related policy reports were used as the analysis unit.Through in-depth interpretation of the vision of higher education in 2050 by three categories of subjects,including higher education experts,the public,and stakeholders,an analysis was made on the road map for higher education in 2050 proposed by UNESCO at the Third World Conference on Higher Education.Starting with the six core elements of“concept,goal,attribute,function,structure,and motivation”,a core element model of the future landscape of global higher education in 2050 was constructed,and then the main directions of future higher education reform were summarized,namely,higher education concepts based on humanism,higher education goals based on sustainable development,higher education attributes based on quasi-public goods,and higher education functions based on creating the future,the structure of higher education based on ecological diversity and the driving force of higher education based on new information technology.Finally,a framework of action suggestions for formulating a long-term plan for China’s higher education for the 2050 was put forward:attaching great importance to the role of humanism values in the development of higher education,taking more positive actions in the global sustainable development,promoting the establishment of a high-quality public education system in China,reshaping the future-oriented innovative talent cultivation system,and building a diverse ecosystem of higher education in China,continuing to accelerate the deep integration of information technology and higher education.