基于Meta分析的生猪氮排泄量预测模型构建

Construction of Models for Predicting Nitrogen Excretion from Pigs Based on Meta-Analysis

本试验旨在利用Meta分析探究常规饲粮下生猪氮排泄量及其变异范围,并建立不同生长阶段生猪氮排泄量的预测模型。检索2000—2021年中外文数据库(Web of Science、PubMed、ScienceDirect、中国知网、维普和万方)中相关文献,以文献中不同阶段生猪的摄入氮(NI)、粪氮(FN)、尿氮(UN)和总氮排泄量(NE)数据为基础,使用倒方差法对生猪氮排泄量进行Meta分析,建立不同阶段生猪氮排泄量的预测模型。结果表明:保育猪、育肥前期猪和育肥后期猪的NI与FN、UN和NE均有较强的相关性(P<0.01),不同生长阶段生猪基于NI的氮排泄量预测模型为:保育猪NE=0.460NI-2.255,FN=0.197NI-1.314,UN=0.264NI-0.965;育肥前期猪NE=0.583NI-5.370,FN=0.139NI+1.340,UN=0.446NI-6.788;育肥后期猪NE=0.698NI-10.251,FN=0.143NI+0.422,UN=0.551NI-10.451。本试验通过Meta分析建立了基于生猪NI的各生长阶段的FN、UN和NE预测模型,可用于预测不同生长阶段生猪的氮排泄量,为养殖粪污资源化利用提供基础参数和方法支撑。

This experiment was aimed to investigate the composition and variation range of pig nitrogen excre⁃tion with conventional diets by Meta⁃analysis,and to develop a prediction model for nitrogen excretion of pigs at different growth stages.The related literatures were searched from 2000 to 2021 in Chinese and foreign lan⁃guage databases(Web of Science,PubMed,ScienceDirect,CNKI,CQVIP and Wanfang Data).The predic⁃tion model of pig nitrogen excretion at different stages was established based on the nitrogen intake(NI),fecal nitrogen(FN),urinary nitrogen(UN)and total nitrogen excretion(NE)of pigs,and using the inverse of variance method to perform Meta⁃analysis of nitrogen excretion of pigs at different growth stages.The results showed that the NI of nursery,pre⁃fattening and late⁃fattening pigs strongly correlated with FN,UN and NE(P<0.01).The models for predicting nitrogen excretion based on NI of pigs at different stages were:nursery pigs NE=0.460NI-2.255,FN=0.197NI-1.314,UN=0.264NI-0.965;pre-fattening pigs NE=0.583NI-5.370,FN=0.139NI+1.340,UN=0.446NI-6.788;late⁃fattening pigs NE=0.698NI-10.251,FN=0.143NI+0.422,UN=0.551NI-10.451.It is concluded that models for predicting FN,UN and NE of pigs at each growth stage are established by Meta⁃analysis in this experiment,which based on the NI of pigs.Those models can be used to predict the nitrogen excretion of pigs at different growth stages and thus provide basic pa⁃rameters and methodological support for resource utilization of farming manure.