低碳经济模式下新疆“人口-产业-资源”格局的时空特征分析

ANALYSIS OF THE SPATIOTEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE“POPULATION-INDUSTRY-RESOURCES”PATTERN IN XINJIANG UNDER THE LOW-CARBON ECONOMIC MODEL

新疆人口、产业和资源发展是推动当地经济社会发展的重要增长点,三者的协调共进能够实现多方共赢,推动众多西部政策的实施.本文基于新疆2005-2020年的样本数据构建“人口-产业-资源”的耦合协调模型和面板VAR模型,通过耦合协调度计算、脉冲响应分析、方差分解等对新疆人口、产业和资源的协调关系和互动关系进行实证研究.结果表明:1)新疆“人口-产业-资源”耦合协调程度逐渐向平稳协调发展;2)新疆人口和资源发展能够显著影响甚至预测当地产业的发展;3)新疆人口、产业与资源发展水平之间相互影响表现为周期性促进或抑制交替、短期显著长期渐消的特征;4)人口和资源发展主要受其自身发展的冲击影响,而产业发展短期受其自身影响、长期受人口变化的冲击.基于此给出相关建议以促进新疆全面协调发展.

The development of population,industry and resources in Xinjiang is an important growth point for promoting local economic and social development,and the coordinated progress of them can achieve multi-party win-win and promote the implementation of numerous western policies.Based on the sample data of Xinjiang from 2005 to 2020,this article constructs a coupled coordination model and a panel VAR model of“population-industry-resources”.Through coupling coordination degree calculation,impulse response analysis,variance decomposition,and other methods,empirical research is conducted on the coordination and interaction relationships between population,industry,and resources in Xinjiang.The results indicate that:1)the coupling coordination degree of“population-industry-resources”in Xinjiang is gradually developing towards stable and coordinated development.2)The population and resource development in Xinjiang can significantly affect and even predict the development of local industries.3)The mutual influence between population,industry,and resource development levels in Xinjiang is characterized by cyclical promotion or suppression alternating,which is short-term significant while long-term gradually disappearing.4)Population and resource development are mainly influenced by their own development,while industrial development is influenced in the short term by its own impact and in long-term by population changes.Based on this,relevant suggestions are provided to promote the comprehensive and coordinated development of Xinjiang.