中国牛肉价格波动特征及其影响因素分析

Characteristics of Beef Price Fluctuation and Its Influencing Factors in China

肉牛产业是畜牧业的重要组成部分,研究牛肉价格波动周期性特征及其影响因素,对于保障肉牛生产、稳定牛肉市场价格,以及促进经济社会稳定发展具有十分重要的意义。利用HP滤波法分析了中国牛肉价格长期趋势、周期性趋势、季节波动规律以及影响因素。研究发现:1994—2021年牛肉市场共经历了5个完整牛肉价格周期和1个新一轮周期,完整的牛肉价格周期持续时间差异较大,在4~8年之间,有2轮周期发生快速上涨,同时波动幅度加大;养殖成本上涨、需求快速增长和替代肉类的共振效应是影响牛肉价格快速上涨的主要因素,宏观经济形势、人口年龄结构、产业政策、公共安全卫生事件、贸易等因素也是牛肉价格周期的形成原因。基于此,建议短期通过完善储备牛肉投放机制、稳定牛肉进口来源和合理引导市场来实现稳价保供,中长期通过降低生产成本、优势生产结构和区域布局实现降本增效,进而稳定中国牛肉市场价格。

The beef cattle industry is an important part of the animal husbandry industry,and it is of great importance to study the cyclical characteristics of beef price fluctuations and the influencing factors to guarantee beef cattle production,stabilize beef market prices,and promote stable economic and social development.The long-term trends,cyclical trends,seasonal fluctuation patterns and influencing factors of beef prices in China were analyzed by using the HP filter method.It was found that the beef market has experienced five complete beef price cycles and a new 1 cycle during 1994-2021,and the duration of complete beef price cycles varies widely between 4-8 years,with 2 cycles experiencing rapid increases while fluctuations have increased.Breeding costs,rapid growth in demand and the resonance effect of alternative meats are the main factors affecting the rapid rise in beef prices,and macroeconomic situation,population age structure,industrial policies,public safety and health events,trade and other factors are also the reasons for the formation of the beef price cycle.Based on this,it was recommended to achieve price stability and supply through the improvement of the reserve beef placement mechanism,stable sources of beef imports and reasonable guidance to the market in the short term,to achieve cost reduction and efficiency through the reduction of production costs,advantageous production structure and regional layout in the medium and long term,so as to stabilize beef market prices in China.