中国跨境电商供应链风险因素研究

Risk Identification and Assessment of Export Supply Chain of Cross-Border E-Commerce in China

准确评估我国跨境电商供应链风险是应对国际贸易市场不确定性风险的重要课题。借鉴社会学的文本分析法,文章结合跨境电商的运作流程及其供应链特点,从物流、信息流和资金流三方面,将跨境电商供应链风险归纳为三个维度、9个二级变量的风险指标体系;并以社会关注度、词频出现频率等文本意义来标示风险程度与发生概率。基于OWA算子加权平均法对风险体系的初步评估,深入剖析我国跨境电商供应链风险的影响程度和逻辑关系;最后,采用浙江298家跨境电商数据以及结构方程模型检验了风险体系的有效性与置信度。结论表明:基于文本分析法的跨境电商供应链风险评估体系,能够有效地呈现新国际贸易环境下供应链的风险信息,其具体风险排序依次为物流管理系统不稳定风险、管控政策风险、通关风险、信息扭曲风险以及信息安全风险等;从而,也有助于供应链的风险管理。

Accurately assessing the risk of China's cross-border e-commerce supply chain is an important issue in addressing the uncertainty risk of the international trade market.Using the text analysis method of sociology for reference,this paper com⁃bines the operation process of cross-border e-commerce and its supply chain characteristics,and summarizes the risk of cross-border e-commerce supply chain into a risk indicator system with three dimensions and nine secondary variables from three aspects of logistics flow,information flow and capital flow.and indicates the degree of risk and probability of occurrence based on textual meanings such as social attention and word frequency.Based on the OWA operator weighted average meth⁃od,a preliminary evaluation of the risk system is conducted to deeply analyze the impact and logical relationship of cross-bor⁃der e-commerce supply chain risks in China;Finally,the effectiveness and confidence of the risk system are tested using data from 298 cross-border e-commerce companies in Zhejiang and structural equation models.The conclusion indicates that the cross-border e-commerce supply chain risk assessment system based on text analysis can effectively present the risk informa⁃tion of the supply chain in the new international trade environment.The specific risk ranking is logistics management system instability risk,control policy risk,customs clearance risk,information distortion risk,and information security risk,Thus,it also contributes to risk management in the supply chain.