湖北省地质灾害成功预报案例和模式浅析

A Brief Analysis of Successful Geological Disaster Prediction Cases and Models in Hubei Province

地质灾害监测预警是地质灾害防治的重要工作。选取2013—2022年近10年湖北省地质灾害成功预报案例294起为样本,对其类型规模、时空分布、预报发生时间差、预报模式等规律特点进行统计分析。结果表明,湖北省成功预报地质灾害主要以小型滑坡为主,大多发生在6—10月份,主要分布在鄂西山区和鄂东北低山丘陵区,避免可能人员伤亡9762人,避免直接经济损失4.46亿元;地质灾害总体成功预报率为6.98%,年度成功预报率呈逐年上升趋势,防灾减灾成效显著;湖北省地质灾害成功预报案例模式有4种,即群测群防型、群专结合型、专群结合型、专业监测型,目前以群专结合型和专群结合型为主,在强降雨期间群测群防型和群专结合型仍是最有效的防灾手段之一。以期为地质灾害防治工作提供一定的借鉴和参考。

Geological disaster monitoring and early warning is an important work of geological disaster prevention and control.This paper selects 294 successful prediction cases of geological disasters in Hubei Province in the past 10 years from 2013 to 2022 as samples,and makes statistical analysis on the types and scales of cases,spatial and temporal distribution,prediction time difference,prediction models and other characteristics of the laws.The results show that the successful prediction of geological disasters in Hubei provine is manily small landslides,most of which occur from June to October,mainly distributed in the mountainous areas of western Hubei and the hilly areas of northeastern Hubei,avoiding possible casualties of 9762 people and avoiding direct economic loesses of 446 million yuan.The overall successful prediction rate of geological disasters is 6.98%.The annual successful prediction rate is increasing year by year,and the effect of disaster prevention and mitigation is remarkable.The successful prediction models of geological disasters in Hubei Province include:mass observation and mass preparedness,combination of the masses and technicians,combination of the technicians and masses,professional monitoring.At present,the model is mainly the combination of the masses and technicians,combination of the technicians and masses.During heavy rainfall,mass observation and mass preparedness and combination of the masses and technicians is still one of the most effective means of disaster prevention.In order to provide some reference for the prevention and control of geological disasters.