利益分布结构、社会联盟构成与美国霸权战略的长久延续

Distribution of Interests,Domestic Coalitions and the Persistence of the US Grand Strategy of Hegemony

随着要求“克制”的声音在华盛顿甚嚣尘上,美国长久以来坚持的霸权战略似乎正在走向终结。然而,就现实来看,美国政府显然并未听从“克制”的声音而放弃霸权战略。针对这一现象,现有的解释多是基于“门户开放”的阐释、地理政治的理解和惯性的逻辑。但这些解释未曾明晰推进霸权战略的动能为何几乎总是可以战胜其他动能,且忽视了这一战略的不同构成要素之间可能出现步调不一的情况。本文试图基于利益分布结构和社会联盟构成两个要素,从海外介入、“民主扩展”和自由贸易三大核心问题领域出发,指出围绕这些问题领域构建的社会联盟及其力量对比决定了美国大战略为何会呈现出一种霸权战略的形态。不过,需要注意的是,由于这些问题领域的利益分布结构和力量分布状态并不相同,它们各自的发展步调也不一致。因此,如同特朗普执政时期那样,霸权战略可能会失去原本的一些构成要素。

As the calls for constraint in Washington have been growing increasingly,the longterm grand strategy of liberal hegemony upheld by the US appears to come to an end.However,the US government has never heeded these calls and abandoned the liberal hegemony.The persistence of this strategy is currently often explained by the logic of Open Door,geopolitical interpretations and path dependence.However,these explanations underestimate the supporting role of societal power for this strategy and neglect the incoherent pace between components of this strategy.On the basis of the distribution of interests and domestic coalitions,this research has seen the overseas interference,democratic expansion and free trade as the three core issues.This paper points out that the domestic coalitions have established around these three issues and their strength makes a contribution to having the liberal hegemony as the grand strategy of the US.But,it should be noted that,due to different features of the distribution of interests and strength around the three issues,their evolving pace varies.That’s why liberal hegemony may lose some of its original components,just as it did during Donald Trump’s presidency.