巴中市2021年7月15—16日暴雨成因与预报失败原因分析

Analysis on Causes of Rainstorm and Its Forecast Failure in Bazhong City from July 15 to 16,2021

利用常规观测资料、NECP再分析资料、雷达资料及数值模式产品,分析了巴中市2021年7月15—16日连续性暴雨天气过程成因和预报技术失败原因。结果表明:(1)此次过程是在副高西进过程中,由低层切变线及弱冷空气侵入触发的暴雨天气过程;(2)本地短时强降水预报物理量和雷达特征指标在此次过程中可信度较高;(3)对地面场演变和水汽条件分析不全、数值模式预报产品误差较大是造成此次预报失败的主要原因。

Based on conventional observation data,NECP reanalysis data,radar data and numerical model products,this paper analyzes the cause of continuous rainstorm weather process in Bazhong City from July 15 to 16,2021,as well as the failure of forecasting technology.The results show that:(1)this process is a rainstorm weather process triggered by low level shear line and weak cold air intrusion during the westward advance of the subtropical high;(2)The local short-term strong precipitation forecast physical quantity and radar characteristic index have high reliability in this process;(3)The main reasons for the failure of this prediction are the incomplete analysis of the surface field evolution and water vapor conditions and the large error of the numerical model prediction products.