玉树地区24 h最高、最低气温预报指标研究

Study on Forecast Indexes of 24-Hour Maximum and Minimum Temperature in Yushu Region

由于青藏高原天气的复杂性和特殊的地理环境,且受限于站点建设分布,各家模式对青海的预报准确率偏低,其中玉树地区的可预报性最低,参考性最差。近年来,玉树地区的预报准确率也一直偏低,人工订正能力有限,因此,为提高本地预报的准确率,开展了本地化客观预报方法研究。

Due to the complexity of the weather on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the special geographical environment,and limited to the construction and distribution of stations,the accuracy of various models to forecast Qinghai is low,of which Yushu area has the lowest predictability and the worst reference.In recent years,the forecast accuracy of Yushu area has also been low,and the ability of manual correction is limited.Therefore,in order to improve the local forecast accuracy,it is necessary to carry out the research of localized objective forecast methods.