固镇县近50年农业热量资源变化趋势特征研究

Study on the Change Trend of Agricultural Heat Resources in Guzhen County in Recent 50 Years

利用1971—2020年固镇县气象局的地面观测资料,深入研究了近50年固镇县农业热量资源变化趋势,结果表明:过去50年中固镇县和全国大部分地区相同,气温呈变暖趋势,农业热量资源总体呈上升趋势;各界限温度(0、10℃)初日时间提前,终日时间推迟,持续日数和积温均有显著增加。≥0℃积温年变化呈双峰结构波动上升,1990年发生突变,突变前以负温度距平为主,整体呈负增长;突变后以正温度距平为主,呈弱增长趋势。≥10℃积温年变化整体呈上升趋势,但波动较大,1994年发生突变,突变前以负温度距平为主,整体呈负增长;突变后以正温度距平为主,整体呈先升后降的负增长趋势。

Based on the ground observation data of Guzhen County Meteorological Bureau from 1971 to 2020,the change trend of agricultural heat resources in Guzhen County in the past 50 years has been studied in depth.The results showed that the temperature in Guzhen County was the same as that in most parts of the country in the past 50 years,and the overall agricultural heat resources were on the rise.Each boundary temperature(0℃,10℃)was advanced at the beginning and delayed at the end,and the number of days and accumulated temperature were significantly increased.The annual change of accumulated temperature≥0℃showed a double-peak structure fluctuation and rise,and a sudden change occurred in 1990.Before the sudden change,the negative temperature anomaly dominated,and the overall growth was negative.After the mutation,the positive temperature anomaly was dominant,showing a weak growth trend.The annual change of accumulated temperature≥10℃showed an overall upward trend,but the fluctuation was relatively large.The mutation occurred in 1994.Before the mutation,the negative temperature anomaly was dominant,and the overall growth was negative.After the sudden change,the positive temperature anomaly was the main trend,and the overall trend was negative growth with first rising and then falling.