新冠疫情下我国中药上市公司的财务状况及危机预警

Financial Situation and Crisis Warning of Listed Traditional Chinese Medicine Companies in China During the COVID-19 Epidemic

目的评估新冠疫情背景下我国中药上市公司的财务状况,并提出财务风险控制和危机预警建议。方法使用Z值模型对中药上市公司2020年至2022年的财务状况进行分析,基于2020年至2022年我国中药上市公司的季度财务报表面板数据,建立回归模型并对影响因素进行分析,探讨新冠疫情对中药行业的影响。结果中药上市公司的Z值2020年至2022年同比下降率分别为6.06%,3.23%,6.67%。2022年的平均Z值为2.8,首次低于2.99,财务状况进入灰色区域;2020年至2022年的平均Z值为3.0,处于财务健康状态。回归模型分析结果显示,流动资产比和资产负债比对Z值分别有显著正向和反向影响(P<0.01)。结论新冠疫情背景下,我国中药上市公司的财务状况较好,但恶化趋势明显。中药上市公司应适度提升流动资产比和降低资产负债比,并建立健全财务指标体系和危机预警机制。

Objective To evaluate the financial situation of listed traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)companies during the COVID-19 epidemic,and to put forward suggestions for financial risk control and crisis warning.Methods The Z-value model was used to analyze the financial situation of listed TCM companies from 2020 to 2022.Based on the Panel data of the quarterly financial statements of listed TCM companies from 2020 to 2022,a regression model was established and influencing factors were analyzed to explore the impact of the epidemic on the TCM industry.Results From 2020 to 2022,the year-on-year decrease rates of Z-values of listed TCM companies were 6.06%,3.23%,and 6.67%,respectively.The average Z-value in 2022 was 2.8,which was below 2.99 for the first time,and the financial situation entered the gray zone.However,the average Z-value was 3.0 from 2020 to 2022,indicating financial health.The regression model analysis results showed that the current asset ratio and asset-liability ratio had significant positive and negative effects on the Z-values,respectively(P<0.01).Conclusion During the COVID-19 epidemic,the financial situation of listed TCM companies in China is good,but there is an obvious trend of deterioration.Listed TCM companies should moderately increase the current asset ratio and reduce the asset-liability ratio,establish and improve the financial index system and crisis early warning mechanism.