日本对未来大流行病的准备

Japan’s Preparedness for Future Pandemic

过去25年的大流行病历史警示我们,大流行病必然会到来。过去25年里,人类感染过七种新的呼吸道病原体,这七种病原体都是病毒,三种是冠状病毒,四种是甲型流感病毒,其中有三种已经成为全球大流行病:SARS、H1N1-2009和COVID-19。七种病毒出现的平均间隔为5年。这三种大流行病的间隔为6—10年,平均8年左右,而其余四种病毒性疾病好在并没有发展成大流行病。历史警示人们,每5年将遭遇一种新的病毒,而大流行病预计每10年发生一次。

The lesson learned from the history of pandemic in the last 25 years is that pandemics are bound to come.In the past 25 years,humans have encountered seven new respiratory pathogens.All seven of these pathogens are viruses,three kinds of coronaviruses and four kinds of influenza A viruses.Of these seven viruses,three have become global pandemics:SARS,H1N1-2009,and COVID-19.The average interval between encounters with the seven viruses is 5 years;the interval between the three pandemics is 6 and 10 years,averaging 8 years.The four viral diseases that did not become pandemics also just happened to be lucky enough not to become pandemics.The lesson to be learned is that we will continue to encounter a new virus every 5 years,and pandemics are expected to occur every 10 years.